Why would a countywide median hold flat while one of the county's best known golf communities is trading noticeably lower, at the same time?
In November 2025, Redfin's data for James City County put the median sale price at $520,000, up 23.1 percent from a year earlier. By March 2026, data from the Virginia Association of Realtors, reported by the local outlet Williamsburg Watch, put the county's median at $475,000, flat compared to March of the prior year. That's a $45,000 swing and a 23 point change in the growth rate, in four months, with no story anywhere describing a real correction of that size.
Meanwhile, inside Ford's Colony, one of the county's largest gated golf communities, the average sale price sat at $735,000 this spring, down 8.1 percent from a year before. A separate snapshot from the same period put the community's median list price at $730,000 with an average sale price of $772,225.
None of these numbers are wrong. They're measuring different things. The county figure is an average of whatever mix of homes happened to close that month, waterfront golf estates and modest rural ranches counted once each. Ford's Colony's figure is measuring one specific product: a gated, amenity-heavy community with its own supply and its own buyer pool. If you're comparing neighborhoods in James City County right now, the county median tells you almost nothing about what your target community is actually doing.
The County Number Swings Because It's Counting Different Houses Each Month
The jump from $520,000 in November to $475,000 by March isn't a sign that the market cooled by nearly 10 percent in a single winter. It's more likely a mix-shift artifact. If more higher-priced Kingsmill or Ford's Colony sales closed in November, the median rises. If more entry-level Toano or Stonehouse sales closed in March, the median falls back down, without either community's own pricing having moved much at all.
There's a second signal worth pairing with that swing. Redfin's county-level data also showed only 90 homes sold in November 2025, down from 126 a year earlier, with days on market stretching from 28 to 35. Fewer transactions closing means each individual sale carries more weight in that month's median, which makes the countywide number even noisier than it would be in a higher-volume market.
Ford's Colony Tells a Steadier, and Different, Story
Ford's Colony's own numbers are more consistent, and they point the opposite direction from what the county headline implies. As of this spring, the community had 37 homes on the market ranging from $419,000 to $1,675,000, with an average of 52 days to sell. That spread is wide enough that even "the Ford's Colony median" is smoothing over a lot of internal variety, from starter townhomes to golf-course estates. But the average sale price trend is clear: down about 8 percent year over year.
That decline doesn't line up with a community in retreat. New construction is still breaking ground inside Ford's Colony at premium prices. Marsh Hawk Villas, a new 22-unit luxury townhome project with elevators and golf-course views, is under construction there with prices starting around $700,000. Ford's Colony's homeowners association has also partnered with Glo Fiber, the broadband arm of Shentel, to bring fiber-to-the-home service to the community, infrastructure investment that doesn't typically follow a neighborhood people are giving up on.
Not every planned project in the area is moving forward on the same timeline. A separate mixed-use development known as Ford's Village was paused in January 2026 after its assisted-living component was withdrawn, leaving its future direction under reassessment. Put together, the picture is selective rather than uniform: capital is still flowing into golf-adjacent new construction and club infrastructure, while a larger project built around a different use case has stalled. That's a more specific and more useful signal than a single softening resale average.
What's Anchoring the Other End of the County
If Ford's Colony is pulling the county average down at the top, Toano and Stonehouse are holding the floor at the bottom, and doing it in very different ways from each other.
Stonehouse takes its name from a colonial-era house near the York River that no longer stands. Today the area is a handful of subdivisions plus a shopping stretch along Richmond Road, offering quieter acreage lots that sit apart from any gated perimeter.
Toano grew up along that same Richmond Road corridor in the late 1800s and still keeps a small downtown, with waterfront parcels tucked in about 20 minutes from Williamsburg. A local associate broker described the area plainly: "It's horse country."
Neither community is trying to compete with Ford's Colony or Governor's Land on amenities, and that's the point. They hold inventory at lower price points, so whenever a batch of their listings closes in a given month, they pull the county's blended number down regardless of what the golf communities a few miles away are doing.
What Your Money Actually Buys, Community by Community
| Community | What your money buys | 2026 signal |
|---|---|---|
| Ford's Colony | Private golf, trails and pools behind a gated perimeter | Average sale price down about 8% year over year, even as new $700K+ townhomes break ground |
| Governor's Land | Waterfront acreage between the James and Chickahominy, plus Two Rivers Country Club | $13 million clubhouse renovation the club targeted for completion by spring 2026 |
| Kingsmill on the James | River frontage and an established golf pedigree | Long-standing luxury tier within the county's master-planned communities |
| Stonehouse | Acreage and distance from the tourist core | Lower price anchor that offsets golf-community averages in the county blend |
| Toano | Small-town rural roots, described locally as horse country | Waterfront parcels available roughly 20 minutes from Williamsburg |
| New Town | Walkable, mixed-use living with retail and dining on foot | The county's answer to city-style density without City of Williamsburg tax jurisdiction |
The Club Money Still Flowing to Governor's Land
Governor's Land sits on more than 1,400 acres between the James and Chickahominy Rivers, built around Two Rivers Country Club and its Tom Fazio-designed course. Earlier this year, the club described a clubhouse renovation it priced at $13 million and had targeted for completion by spring 2026.
That kind of capital commitment gets planned years ahead of any single quarter's price data. For a buyer weighing Governor's Land against Ford's Colony, a renovation timeline set months in advance is a more useful fact than either community's trailing 12-month average, because it tells you what the amenity package is meant to look like for a buyer moving in this year, independent of whatever the county median happens to be doing that month.
What This Means If You're Comparing Neighborhoods Right Now
Ask for the specific community's own recent sales data before you anchor to anything countywide. A "declining average" in a community with 37 active listings, like Ford's Colony this spring, often means buyers have more room to compare and negotiate, not that demand is collapsing.
If you're weighing a property near the boundary between the City of Williamsburg and the county, check which side of the line it falls on. The city's most recently published rate, for FY26, ran lower than the county's, though your actual bill depends on your specific assessment and any special district fees, so it's worth confirming both current numbers directly rather than assuming last year's comparison still holds.
If you want to track price movement yourself over time instead of relying on any single snapshot, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis publishes a running house price index for James City County that updates as new sales record.
A Few Questions Worth Asking
Does a falling average in Ford's Colony mean it's a bad time to sell there? Not necessarily. With inventory spanning $419,000 to $1,675,000, buyers have more to compare against, which tends to moderate closing prices without signaling that demand has dried up. It does mean a listing needs to be priced against a wider set of competing choices than it would have a year or two ago.
Why would the county median stay flat if a major community inside it is softening? Because the county figure isn't a weighted average of any one product. It's whatever mix of homes closed that month. A strong month of closings in Toano or Stonehouse can offset a soft month in Ford's Colony without either community's actual pricing changing much at all.
Is the Two Rivers Country Club renovation open to the whole county, or just Governor's Land? Membership and use of Two Rivers Country Club runs through Governor's Land specifically, so the renovation upgrades that community's own amenity package rather than something available countywide.
If you're trying to figure out what a specific James City County community, rather than the county as a whole, is actually doing right now, that's exactly the kind of comparison worth walking through with someone who watches these numbers by neighborhood. BERB Real Estate Partners can pull the recent activity for the specific street or community you're weighing and talk through what it means for your timeline. Get your instant home valuation or schedule a consultation with Berb.
